Sample Checklists

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In my e-book, How to Make Money From Political Predictions, one of the tips I advise is to create a checklist to avoid undisciplined bets.

I first learned about the concept in Atul Gawande’s terrific book The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right. I encourage you to read the book in its entirety, but the basic idea is that a simple checklist can reduce errors in complex situations where people are prone to making the same mistakes. Investors in particular have used checklists with astonishing results.

The checklist should be based on an analysis of where you, as an individual, need reminders.  It should be reassessed constantly, but kept to a manageable length. 

Below are two sample checklists—one that I use, another that a friend in my PredictIt mastermind group uses.

  • Is the market price congruent with available polling and models?
  • Are there reasons to believe that PredictIt markets, in this case, are more accurate than the polls or respected models? 
  • Are marketsoverreacting or underreacting to meaningful data points?
  • Are any cognitivebiases distorting my assessment of the market price?
  • Is my intuition at odds with the majority opinion in the mastermind group? If so, why?

Here’s another that a friend in my PredictIt group uses:

  • Read the rules of each bet before you decide to bet money on it.  Often the headline provided by the bet is significantly different (or has additional features) that the actual rules of the bet. 
  • Research, Research, Research: Always consider sources critically and assume a hidden agenda trying to influence you. Go to the direct source whenever possible (a speech etc.), instead of relying on news reports.
  • Look for similar examples of the market you are betting on that have already taken place.
  • Go to the direct source. Much better to watch a comment made during Trump speech than to read an article telling you what Trump said in a speech. 
  • Study body language.  There are many non-verbal cues that indicate deception.
  • Don’t just Google articles.  Be creative and think of “outside the box” ways that someone may indicate that they are doing something, something that would happen before something happens (i.e. if Cruz is not running for President, why is he going to all of the key battle ground states and giving speeches)